How Our Football Predictions Are Made

AfriPredictions turns available football data into market-specific probability estimates. This page explains the inputs we actually store, how a selection reaches the board and where the method has limits.

1. Fixture and results data

We start with the scheduled fixture, competition, teams, kick-off time and any completed results available from our data feeds. Recent-form and head-to-head panels are calculated only from stored completed fixtures. Missing history is shown as unavailable.

2. Standings and scoring context

Where the provider has synced a current league table, the model can use position, points, goals for and goals against as context. Different competitions have different scoring patterns, and a small or stale sample should be treated cautiously.

3. Market probabilities

The prediction engine stores a selection, probability and confidence for supported markets such as 1X2, both teams to score, over/under goals, double chance, correct score and half-time/full-time. A higher probability is still not certainty, and the available price matters when judging value.

4. Updates and availability

Fixtures and predictions can change when the underlying source data is refreshed. Page freshness labels use the newest stored content timestamp, not the time a visitor opened the page. We do not claim injury, lineup or tactical information unless that field is genuinely available.

5. Settling the record

Before kick-off, new selections are written to an append-only hash chain with the pick, odds, probability, model version and publication time. When a result is received, the grading event is appended instead of rewriting history. Rows that existed before this ledger launched are labelled as legacy imports and do not count as verified publication proof. See recent correct predictions on our winning picks page; past wins do not predict future performance.

Limitations and responsible use

Football includes red cards, injuries, rotation and chance. No model can guarantee a correct result or profit. Predictions are for information and entertainment, for adults aged 18 and over. Set limits and never stake money you cannot afford to lose.