USL Championship · Saturday, 01 Aug 2026
Lexington
Home
3-2
Full time
Toyota Stadium
Monterey Bay
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.38
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.33 - 0.81
Win probability
Home
68%
Draw
18%
Away
14%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
68%
1.38
Double Chance
Home/Draw
86%
1.09
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64%
1.47
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
64%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.14
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Lexington wins
0
Draws
0
Monterey Bay wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
46%
Recent form
26%
60%
Attack
40%
40%
Defence
46%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
68%
Win probability
14%
Home and away record
Lexington
last 2 at home
1W
0D
1L
1.50
points a game
1.50
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Monterey Bay
last 2 away from home
0W
1D
1L
0.50
points a game
1.00
scored a game
1.50
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
5 matches.
| Lexington | Monterey Bay | |
|---|---|---|
| 80% 4/5 | Over 1.5 goals | 3/5 60% |
| 60% 3/5 | Over 2.5 goals | 3/5 60% |
| 60% 3/5 | Over 3.5 goals | 2/5 40% |
| 60% 3/5 | Both teams scored | 3/5 60% |
| 40% 2/5 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/5 40% |
| 20% 1/5 | Failed to score | 1/5 20% |
At half time
Lexington
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
60%
Behind
20%
Monterey Bay
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
80%
Behind
0%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Lexington |
29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | +18 | 47 |
| 12 |
Monterey Bay |
29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -21 | 21 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Lexington face Monterey Bay in USL Championship. Lexington have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 9 (1.4 points per game). Monterey Bay have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 8 (0.8 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 64% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 68% probability backing Lexington, home advantage and superior chance creation make Lexington to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 68% win probability for Lexington, a 18% chance of a draw, and a 14% probability for Monterey Bay. Our top recommended betting pick is Lexington Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.14 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Saturday, 01 Aug 2026 at 23:00 (East Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium as part of the USL Championship.
