Limited match data: this preview is still updating and is not promoted in search until enough form, standings and prediction evidence is available.
Primeira Liga · Saturday, 08 Aug 2026
Guimaraes
Home
0-1
Full time
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Arouca
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.92
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.88 - 1.16
Win probability
Home
49%
Draw
21%
Away
30%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
49%
1.92
Double Chance
Home/Away
79%
1.19
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69%
1.36
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
69%
1.36
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
69%
Over 2.5
69%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.04
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Guimaraes wins
0
Draws
0
Arouca wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
86%
Recent form
33%
86%
Attack
20%
86%
Defence
66%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
49%
Win probability
30%
Home and away record
Guimaraes
last 4 at home
4W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
3.00
scored a game
0.25
conceded a game
Arouca
last 5 away from home
1W
2D
2L
1.00
points a game
0.60
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
6 matches.
| Guimaraes | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| 100% 6/6 | Over 1.5 goals | 3/5 60% |
| 50% 3/6 | Over 2.5 goals | 2/5 40% |
| 50% 3/6 | Over 3.5 goals | 0/5 0% |
| 50% 3/6 | Both teams scored | 1/5 20% |
| 50% 3/6 | Kept a clean sheet | 3/5 60% |
| 0% 0/6 | Failed to score | 3/5 60% |
At half time
Guimaraes
from 4 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
75%
Level
25%
Behind
0%
Arouca
from 2 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
0%
Level
100%
Behind
0%
Match Preview & Analysis
Guimaraes face Arouca in Primeira Liga. Guimaraes have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 13 and conceding 2 (2.6 points per game). Arouca have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 3 and conceding 5 (1 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 69% and Both Teams to Score at 69%.
With a 49% probability backing Guimaraes, home advantage and superior chance creation make Guimaraes to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 49% win probability for Guimaraes, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 30% probability for Arouca. Our top recommended betting pick is Guimaraes Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.04 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 69% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Saturday, 08 Aug 2026 at 17:00 (East Africa Time) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques as part of the Primeira Liga.
