USL Championship · Saturday, 08 Aug 2026
Lexington
Home
1-0
Full time
Toyota Stadium
Phoenix Rising
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.59
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.12 - 0.96
Win probability
Home
59%
Draw
20%
Away
21%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
59%
1.59
Double Chance
Home/Draw
79%
1.19
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69%
1.36
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
65%
1.45
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
69%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.08
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Lexington wins
0
Draws
0
Phoenix Rising wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
46%
Recent form
33%
53%
Attack
40%
33%
Defence
46%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
59%
Win probability
21%
Home and away record
Lexington
last 3 at home
2W
0D
1L
2.00
points a game
2.00
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Phoenix Rising
last 3 away from home
0W
1D
2L
0.33
points a game
1.00
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
6 matches.
| Lexington | Phoenix Rising | |
|---|---|---|
| 83% 5/6 | Over 1.5 goals | 5/6 83% |
| 67% 4/6 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/6 67% |
| 67% 4/6 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/6 50% |
| 67% 4/6 | Both teams scored | 5/6 83% |
| 33% 2/6 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/6 17% |
| 17% 1/6 | Failed to score | 1/6 17% |
At half time
Lexington
from 6 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
17%
Level
67%
Behind
17%
Phoenix Rising
from 6 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
0%
Level
83%
Behind
17%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Lexington |
29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | +18 | 47 |
| 8 |
Phoenix Rising |
29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 39 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Lexington face Phoenix Rising in USL Championship. Lexington have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 10 (1.4 points per game). Phoenix Rising have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 8 (1 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 69% and Both Teams to Score at 65%.
With a 59% probability backing Lexington, home advantage and superior chance creation make Lexington to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 59% win probability for Lexington, a 20% chance of a draw, and a 21% probability for Phoenix Rising. Our top recommended betting pick is Lexington Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.08 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 65% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Saturday, 08 Aug 2026 at 23:00 (East Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium as part of the USL Championship.
