Serie A · Sunday, 16 Aug 2026
Atletico-MG
Home
3-0
Full time
Arena MRV
Gremio
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 2.14
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.76 - 1.16
Win probability
Home
44%
Draw
26%
Away
30%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
44%
2.14
Double Chance
Home/Draw
70%
1.34
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.92
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Atletico-MG wins
0
Draws
0
Gremio wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
73%
Recent form
53%
40%
Attack
33%
80%
Defence
73%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
44%
Win probability
30%
Home and away record
Atletico-MG
last 2 at home
0W
2D
0L
1.00
points a game
0.50
scored a game
0.50
conceded a game
Gremio
last 3 away from home
0W
1D
2L
0.33
points a game
1.33
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
8 matches.
| Atletico-MG | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| 50% 3/6 | Over 1.5 goals | 6/8 75% |
| 33% 2/6 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/8 50% |
| 17% 1/6 | Over 3.5 goals | 2/8 25% |
| 50% 3/6 | Both teams scored | 6/8 75% |
| 50% 3/6 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/8 13% |
| 17% 1/6 | Failed to score | 1/8 13% |
At half time
Atletico-MG
from 6 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
33%
Level
67%
Behind
0%
Gremio
from 7 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
14%
Level
29%
Behind
57%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |
Atletico-MG |
34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 |
| 18 |
Gremio |
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 37 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Atletico-MG face Gremio in Serie A. Atletico-MG have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 3 (2.2 points per game). Gremio have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 4 (1.6 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 44% probability backing Atletico-MG, home advantage and superior chance creation make Atletico-MG to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 44% win probability for Atletico-MG, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 30% probability for Gremio. Our top recommended betting pick is Atletico-MG Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.92 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 16 Aug 2026 at 19:00 (East Africa Time) at Arena MRV as part of the Serie A.
