Community Shield · Sunday, 16 Aug 2026
Arsenal
Home
3-0
Full time
Principality Stadium
Manchester City
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.62
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.09 - 0.94
Win probability
Home
58%
Draw
22%
Away
20%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
58%
1.62
Double Chance
Home/Draw
80%
1.18
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.03
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Arsenal wins
0
Draws
0
Manchester City wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
6%
Recent form
77%
33%
Attack
77%
13%
Defence
66%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
58%
Win probability
20%
Home and away record
Arsenal
last 8 at home
0W
2D
6L
0.25
points a game
1.13
scored a game
2.38
conceded a game
Manchester City
last 1 away from home
1W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
3.00
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Arsenal | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| 90% 9/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 3/3 100% |
| 80% 8/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 2/3 67% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 2/3 67% |
| 70% 7/10 | Both teams scored | 3/3 100% |
| 10% 1/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 0/3 0% |
| 30% 3/10 | Failed to score | 0/3 0% |
At half time
Arsenal
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
40%
Behind
40%
Manchester City
from 3 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
33%
Level
33%
Behind
33%
Match Preview & Analysis
Arsenal face Manchester City in Community Shield. Arsenal have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 13 (0.2 points per game). Manchester City have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 games, scoring 7 and conceding 3 (2.33 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 58% probability backing Arsenal, home advantage and superior chance creation make Arsenal to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 58% win probability for Arsenal, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 20% probability for Manchester City. Our top recommended betting pick is Arsenal Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.03 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 16 Aug 2026 at 14:00 (East Africa Time) at Principality Stadium as part of the Community Shield.
