National League - North · Tuesday, 18 Aug 2026
Merthyr Town
Home
2-2
Full time
Penydarren Park
AFC Telford United
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.03
Predicted score
3 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.88 - 0.52
Win probability
Home
91%
Draw
4%
Away
1%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
91%
1.03
Double Chance
Home/Draw
95%
1.01
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
84%
1.12
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
84%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.4
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Merthyr Town wins
0
Draws
0
AFC Telford United wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
60%
Recent form
20%
60%
Attack
26%
80%
Defence
33%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
91%
Win probability
5%
Home and away record
Merthyr Town
last 6 at home
4W
1D
1L
2.17
points a game
2.50
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
AFC Telford United
last 1 away from home
0W
0D
1L
0.00
points a game
1.00
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
8 matches.
| Merthyr Town | AFC Telford United | |
|---|---|---|
| 88% 7/8 | Over 1.5 goals | 4/5 80% |
| 75% 6/8 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 80% |
| 25% 2/8 | Over 3.5 goals | 1/5 20% |
| 50% 4/8 | Both teams scored | 3/5 60% |
| 38% 3/8 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/5 20% |
| 13% 1/8 | Failed to score | 1/5 20% |
At half time
Merthyr Town
from 8 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
38%
Behind
13%
AFC Telford United
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
20%
Behind
60%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
AFC Telford United |
15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 19 |
| 19 |
Merthyr Town |
15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Merthyr Town face AFC Telford United in National League - North. Merthyr Town have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 3 (1.8 points per game). AFC Telford United have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 10 (0.6 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 84% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 91% probability backing Merthyr Town, home advantage and superior chance creation make Merthyr Town to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 3-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 91% win probability for Merthyr Town, a 4% chance of a draw, and a 1% probability for AFC Telford United. Our top recommended betting pick is Merthyr Town Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 3 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.4 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Tuesday, 18 Aug 2026 at 18:45 (East Africa Time) at Penydarren Park as part of the National League - North.
