Liga de Expansión MX · Sunday, 23 Aug 2026
Durango
Home
1-2
Full time
Estadio Francisco Zarco
Leones Negros UDG
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 1.09
Predicted score
0 - 2
Goal expectancy (xG)
0.8 - 2.39
Win probability
Home
4%
Draw
10%
Away
86%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
86%
1.09
Double Chance
Draw/Away
96%
1.01
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66%
1.42
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
63%
1.49
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
66%
Over 2.5
37%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.19
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Durango wins
0
Draws
0
Leones Negros UDG wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
50%
Recent form
75%
16%
Attack
91%
58%
Defence
58%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
5%
Win probability
86%
Home and away record
Durango
last 1 at home
0W
0D
1L
0.00
points a game
0.00
scored a game
3.00
conceded a game
Leones Negros UDG
last 2 away from home
2W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
3.00
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
4 matches.
| Durango | Leones Negros UDG | |
|---|---|---|
| 50% 2/4 | Over 1.5 goals | 4/4 100% |
| 25% 1/4 | Over 2.5 goals | 3/4 75% |
| 0% 0/4 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/4 75% |
| 0% 0/4 | Both teams scored | 2/4 50% |
| 50% 2/4 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/4 50% |
| 50% 2/4 | Failed to score | 0/4 0% |
At half time
Durango
from 4 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
0%
Level
75%
Behind
25%
Leones Negros UDG
from 4 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
75%
Level
0%
Behind
25%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Leones Negros UDG |
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |
Durango |
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Durango face Leones Negros UDG in Liga de Expansión MX. Durango have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 games, scoring 2 and conceding 5 (1.5 points per game). Leones Negros UDG have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 games, scoring 11 and conceding 5 (2.25 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 66% and Both Teams to Score at 37%.
Leones Negros UDG's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 86% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Leones Negros UDG to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 0-2, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 4% win probability for Durango, a 10% chance of a draw, and a 86% probability for Leones Negros UDG. Our top recommended betting pick is Leones Negros UDG Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 0 - 2, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.19 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 37%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 23 Aug 2026 at 01:00 (East Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Zarco as part of the Liga de Expansión MX.
