La Liga · Sunday, 23 Aug 2026
Atletico Madrid
Home
2-2
Full time
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Villarreal
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.96
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.85 - 1.18
Win probability
Home
48%
Draw
22%
Away
31%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
48%
1.96
Double Chance
Home/Draw
70%
1.34
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68%
1.38
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
68%
1.38
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
68%
Over 2.5
68%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.03
Avg goals
Get this match's pick on WhatsApp
Tap, hit send and the bot replies in seconds with the Atletico Madrid v Villarreal pick. One VIP pick a week is free.
Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Atletico Madrid wins
0
Draws
0
Villarreal wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
50%
Recent form
66%
50%
Attack
60%
50%
Defence
53%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
48%
Win probability
31%
Home and away record
Atletico Madrid
last 1 at home
1W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
2.00
scored a game
0.00
conceded a game
Villarreal
last 5 away from home
2W
1D
2L
1.40
points a game
1.60
scored a game
1.80
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
6 matches.
| Atletico Madrid | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 100% 4/4 | Over 1.5 goals | 5/6 83% |
| 75% 3/4 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/6 67% |
| 25% 1/4 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/6 50% |
| 75% 3/4 | Both teams scored | 4/6 67% |
| 25% 1/4 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/6 17% |
| 0% 0/4 | Failed to score | 1/6 17% |
At half time
Atletico Madrid
from 4 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
50%
Behind
0%
Villarreal
from 6 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
17%
Level
83%
Behind
0%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Atletico Madrid |
12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 28 |
| 8 |
Villarreal |
12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 15 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Atletico Madrid face Villarreal in La Liga. Atletico Madrid have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 games, scoring 6 and conceding 6 (1.5 points per game). Villarreal have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 7 (2 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 68% and Both Teams to Score at 68%.
With a 48% probability backing Atletico Madrid, home advantage and superior chance creation make Atletico Madrid to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 48% win probability for Atletico Madrid, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 31% probability for Villarreal. Our top recommended betting pick is Atletico Madrid Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.03 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 68% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Sunday, 23 Aug 2026 at 15:00 (East Africa Time) at Riyadh Air Metropolitano as part of the La Liga.
