Serie A · Sunday, 23 Aug 2026
Santos
Home
1-1
Full time
Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Mirassol
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 2.09
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.44 - 1.49
Win probability
Home
31%
Draw
24%
Away
45%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
45%
2.09
Double Chance
Draw/Away
69%
1.36
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.93
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Santos wins
0
Draws
0
Mirassol wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
53%
Recent form
13%
53%
Attack
20%
60%
Defence
33%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
31%
Win probability
45%
Team news
Santos
- Neymar · Suspended
- Thaciano · Muscle Injury
- Willian Arao · Muscle Injury
- Vinicius Lira · Knee Injury
- G. Escobar · Thigh Injury
- Gabriel Brazao · Shoulder Injury
- Joao Schmidt · Yellow Cards
- Lucas Verissimo · Thigh Injury
Mirassol
- Edson Carioca · Yellow Cards
- Negueba · Knee Injury
- Bruno Santos · Red Card
- Andre Luis · Yellow Cards
- Jose Aldo · Muscle Injury
- Joao Victor · Red Card
- Alesson · Yellow Cards
- Walter · Injury
Absences as last reported. Line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.
Home and away record
Santos
last 8 at home
4W
3D
1L
1.88
points a game
1.88
scored a game
1.38
conceded a game
Mirassol
last 4 away from home
0W
2D
2L
0.50
points a game
0.50
scored a game
1.25
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Santos | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| 60% 6/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/9 78% |
| 40% 4/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/9 44% |
| 20% 2/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 2/9 22% |
| 30% 3/10 | Both teams scored | 7/9 78% |
| 50% 5/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/9 11% |
| 40% 4/10 | Failed to score | 2/9 22% |
At half time
Santos
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
0%
Level
80%
Behind
20%
Mirassol
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
44%
Level
33%
Behind
22%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |
Santos |
34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | +1 | 47 |
| 14 |
Mirassol |
34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Santos face Mirassol in Serie A. Santos have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 6 (1.6 points per game). Mirassol have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 3 and conceding 10 (0.4 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
Mirassol's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 45% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Mirassol to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 31% win probability for Santos, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 45% probability for Mirassol. Our top recommended betting pick is Mirassol Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.93 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 23 Aug 2026 at 21:30 (East Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira as part of the Serie A.
