Segunda Liga · Friday, 28 Aug 2026
União de Leiria
Home
2-0
Full time
Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa
Tondela
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.22
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.55 - 0.7
Win probability
Home
77%
Draw
14%
Away
9%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
77%
1.22
Double Chance
Home/Draw
91%
1.03
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72%
1.31
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
72%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.25
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
União de Leiria wins
0
Draws
0
Tondela wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
40%
Recent form
26%
46%
Attack
26%
60%
Defence
46%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
77%
Win probability
9%
Home and away record
União de Leiria
last 3 at home
1W
0D
2L
1.00
points a game
1.00
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Tondela
last 3 away from home
0W
0D
3L
0.00
points a game
0.33
scored a game
1.67
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| União de Leiria | Tondela | |
|---|---|---|
| 60% 3/5 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 40% 2/5 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/10 40% |
| 20% 1/5 | Over 3.5 goals | 1/10 10% |
| 40% 2/5 | Both teams scored | 6/10 60% |
| 20% 1/5 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/10 10% |
| 40% 2/5 | Failed to score | 3/10 30% |
At half time
União de Leiria
from 3 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
33%
Level
33%
Behind
33%
Tondela
from 7 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
57%
Level
29%
Behind
14%
Match Preview & Analysis
União de Leiria face Tondela in Segunda Liga. União de Leiria have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 6 (1.2 points per game). Tondela have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 8 (0.8 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 72% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 77% probability backing União de Leiria, home advantage and superior chance creation make União de Leiria to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 77% win probability for União de Leiria, a 14% chance of a draw, and a 9% probability for Tondela. Our top recommended betting pick is União de Leiria Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.25 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Friday, 28 Aug 2026 at 17:00 (East Africa Time) at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa as part of the Segunda Liga.
