AfriPredictions
Liga MX · Wednesday, 16 Sep 2026
Puebla
Home
01:00
d ::
Estadio Cuauhtémoc
Toluca
Away
Our Prediction ☆ confidence
Recommended tip
2 @ 1.52
Predicted score
1 - 2
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.04 - 1.86
Win probability
Home
14%
Draw
25%
Away
62%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
62% 1.52
Double Chance
Draw/Away
87% 1.08
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
63% 1.49
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
65% 1.45
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
37%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.9
Avg goals
Recent form — last 5
Pue Puebla
W D L W D
2-2-1
W-D-L
7:5
Goals
1.6
PPG
Tol Toluca
W W D L W
3-1-1
W-D-L
9:4
Goals
2
PPG
Head-to-head
3
Puebla wins
1
Draws
1
Toluca wins
16 Apr 2026 Puebla 1 - 0 Toluca
16 Nov 2025 Toluca 0 - 2 Puebla
16 Jun 2025 Puebla 3 - 0 Toluca
16 Jan 2025 Toluca 0 - 0 Puebla
16 Aug 2024 Puebla 1 - 0 Toluca
Why this prediction
53% Recent form 66%
84% Attack 95%
40% Defence 52%
60% Head-to-head 20%
14% Win probability 62%
League standings
#TeamPWDLGDPts
5 Tol Toluca 24 8 8 8 +16 32
7 Pue Puebla 24 11 5 8 +10 38
Match Preview & Analysis

As Puebla prepare to square off against Toluca in Liga MX action, statistical analysis points toward an intriguing tactical contest. Puebla enters this match with 2 wins from their past 5 outings, averaging 1.6 points per game while finding the net 7 times. Meanwhile, Toluca has registered a 5-match record of 3-1-1, displaying resilient defensive organization with 4 goals conceded.

Examining the historical head-to-head record across the last 5 meetings, Puebla has claimed 3 victories compared to 1 for Toluca, with 1 encounters ending in a stalemate. In terms of goal dynamics, the probability of Over 2.5 Goals stands at 37%, while Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is projected at 35%.

With evenly matched metrics (14% vs 62%), tactical discipline from both sides favors a tightly fought stalemate (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-2, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.

Frequently Asked Questions Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 14% win probability for Puebla, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 62% probability for Toluca. Our top recommended betting pick is 2.
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 2, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.9 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 35%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Wednesday, 16 Sep 2026 at 01:00 (East Africa Time) at Estadio Cuauhtémoc as part of the Liga MX.
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