Eredivisie · Sunday, 06 Sep 2026
Heerenveen
Home
2-3
Full time
Abe Lenstra Stadion
AZ Alkmaar
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.96
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.85 - 1.16
Win probability
Home
48%
Draw
21%
Away
30%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
48%
1.96
Double Chance
Home/Away
78%
1.21
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69%
1.36
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
69%
1.36
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
69%
Over 2.5
69%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.01
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Heerenveen wins
0
Draws
0
AZ Alkmaar wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
53%
Recent form
95%
53%
Attack
95%
46%
Defence
80%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
48%
Win probability
30%
Home and away record
Heerenveen
last 5 at home
3W
1D
1L
2.00
points a game
3.00
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
AZ Alkmaar
last 4 away from home
3W
1D
0L
2.50
points a game
2.75
scored a game
0.50
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|
| 88% 7/8 | Over 1.5 goals | 10/10 100% |
| 75% 6/8 | Over 2.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 75% 6/8 | Over 3.5 goals | 6/10 60% |
| 75% 6/8 | Both teams scored | 6/10 60% |
| 13% 1/8 | Kept a clean sheet | 4/10 40% |
| 13% 1/8 | Failed to score | 0/10 0% |
At half time
Heerenveen
from 7 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
29%
Level
57%
Behind
14%
AZ Alkmaar
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
30%
Behind
20%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |
AZ Alkmaar |
12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |
Heerenveen |
12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Heerenveen face AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie. Heerenveen have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 8 (1.6 points per game). AZ Alkmaar have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 17 and conceding 3 (3 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 69% and Both Teams to Score at 69%.
With a 48% probability backing Heerenveen, home advantage and superior chance creation make Heerenveen to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 48% win probability for Heerenveen, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 30% probability for AZ Alkmaar. Our top recommended betting pick is Heerenveen Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.01 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 69% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Sunday, 06 Sep 2026 at 12:30 (East Africa Time) at Abe Lenstra Stadion as part of the Eredivisie.
