Liga de Expansión MX · Sunday, 06 Sep 2026
Tapatío
Home
1-3
Full time
Estadio Akron
Leones Negros UDG
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 1.96
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.52 - 1.56
Win probability
Home
34%
Draw
17%
Away
48%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
48%
1.96
Double Chance
Home/Away
82%
1.15
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
91%
1.03
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
87%
1.08
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
91%
Over 2.5
87%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.08
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Tapatío wins
0
Draws
0
Leones Negros UDG wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
66%
Recent form
66%
73%
Attack
66%
46%
Defence
66%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
34%
Win probability
48%
Home and away record
Tapatío
last 3 at home
2W
1D
0L
2.33
points a game
1.67
scored a game
0.67
conceded a game
Leones Negros UDG
last 3 away from home
3W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
2.67
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
7 matches.
| Tapatío | Leones Negros UDG | |
|---|---|---|
| 71% 5/7 | Over 1.5 goals | 6/6 100% |
| 57% 4/7 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/6 67% |
| 57% 4/7 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/6 50% |
| 71% 5/7 | Both teams scored | 4/6 67% |
| 29% 2/7 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/6 33% |
| 14% 1/7 | Failed to score | 0/6 0% |
At half time
Tapatío
from 7 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
29%
Level
43%
Behind
29%
Leones Negros UDG
from 6 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
67%
Level
17%
Behind
17%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Leones Negros UDG |
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 9 |
Tapatío |
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 14 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Tapatío face Leones Negros UDG in Liga de Expansión MX. Tapatío have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 and conceding 8 (2 points per game). Leones Negros UDG have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 5 (2 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 91% and Both Teams to Score at 87%.
Leones Negros UDG's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 48% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Leones Negros UDG to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 34% win probability for Tapatío, a 17% chance of a draw, and a 48% probability for Leones Negros UDG. Our top recommended betting pick is Leones Negros UDG Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.08 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 87% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Sunday, 06 Sep 2026 at 23:00 (East Africa Time) at Estadio Akron as part of the Liga de Expansión MX.
