Eredivisie · Friday, 11 Sep 2026
AZ Alkmaar
Home
1-1
Full time
AFAS Stadion
Willem II
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.12
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.72 - 0.63
Win probability
Home
84%
Draw
9%
Away
6%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
84%
1.12
Double Chance
Home/Draw
93%
1.01
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
82%
1.15
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
82%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.35
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
AZ Alkmaar wins
0
Draws
0
Willem II wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
95%
Recent form
26%
95%
Attack
40%
66%
Defence
6%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
84%
Win probability
6%
Home and away record
AZ Alkmaar
last 6 at home
5W
1D
0L
2.67
points a game
3.17
scored a game
1.33
conceded a game
Willem II
last 1 away from home
0W
0D
1L
0.00
points a game
1.00
scored a game
4.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| AZ Alkmaar | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|
| 100% 10/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/8 88% |
| 70% 7/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 7/8 88% |
| 60% 6/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 4/8 50% |
| 60% 6/10 | Both teams scored | 6/8 75% |
| 40% 4/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/8 13% |
| 0% 0/10 | Failed to score | 1/8 13% |
At half time
AZ Alkmaar
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
20%
Behind
30%
Willem II
from 8 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
13%
Level
38%
Behind
50%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |
AZ Alkmaar |
12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 |
| 18 |
Willem II |
12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -29 | 3 |
Match Preview & Analysis
AZ Alkmaar face Willem II in Eredivisie. AZ Alkmaar have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 16 and conceding 5 (3 points per game). Willem II have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 14 (0.8 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 82% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 84% probability backing AZ Alkmaar, home advantage and superior chance creation make AZ Alkmaar to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 84% win probability for AZ Alkmaar, a 9% chance of a draw, and a 6% probability for Willem II. Our top recommended betting pick is AZ Alkmaar Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.35 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Friday, 11 Sep 2026 at 18:00 (East Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion as part of the Eredivisie.
