Ligue 2 · Friday, 11 Sep 2026
Montpellier
Home
1-0
Full time
Stade de la Mosson
PAU
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.06
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.84 - 0.57
Win probability
Home
89%
Draw
6%
Away
3%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
89%
1.06
Double Chance
Home/Draw
95%
1.01
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
82%
1.15
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
82%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.41
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Montpellier wins
0
Draws
0
PAU wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
53%
Recent form
33%
26%
Attack
26%
73%
Defence
66%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
89%
Win probability
5%
Home and away record
Montpellier
last 6 at home
3W
2D
1L
1.83
points a game
2.67
scored a game
1.83
conceded a game
PAU
last 5 away from home
2W
1D
2L
1.40
points a game
0.80
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Montpellier | PAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 60% 6/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 5/9 56% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/9 44% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/9 33% |
| 60% 6/10 | Both teams scored | 3/9 33% |
| 40% 4/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/9 22% |
| 10% 1/10 | Failed to score | 4/9 44% |
At half time
Montpellier
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
11%
Level
78%
Behind
11%
PAU
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
33%
Level
22%
Behind
44%
Match Preview & Analysis
Montpellier face PAU in Ligue 2. Montpellier have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 4 (1.6 points per game). PAU have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 5 (1 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 82% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 89% probability backing Montpellier, home advantage and superior chance creation make Montpellier to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 89% win probability for Montpellier, a 6% chance of a draw, and a 3% probability for PAU. Our top recommended betting pick is Montpellier Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.41 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Friday, 11 Sep 2026 at 18:00 (East Africa Time) at Stade de la Mosson as part of the Ligue 2.
