Serie A · Saturday, 12 Sep 2026
Atletico-MG
Home
3-1
Full time
MRV Arena
Fluminense
Away
Recommended tip
- @ -
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.66 - 1.16
Win probability
Home
40%
Draw
30%
Away
30%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
No tip for this market.
Double Chance
Draw/Away
68%
1.38
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.82
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Atletico-MG wins
0
Draws
0
Fluminense wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
46%
Recent form
73%
33%
Attack
60%
53%
Defence
66%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
40%
Win probability
30%
Team news
Atletico-MG
- M. Cassierra · Muscle Injury
- Ruan Tressoldi · Muscle Injury
- T. Borbas · Muscle Injury
- Reinier · Injury
- Fred · Muscle Injury
- Vitor Hugo · Yellow Cards
- Cuello · Ribs Injury
- Everson · Foot Injury
Fluminense
- Matheus Reis · Knee Injury
- Martinelli · Inactive
- Alisson · Hip Injury
- Ignacio · Yellow Cards
- John Kennedy · Knee Injury
- J. Millan · Inactive
- J. Savarino · Yellow Cards
- G. Cano · Hamstring Injury
Absences as last reported. Line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.
Home and away record
Atletico-MG
last 6 at home
3W
3D
0L
2.00
points a game
1.67
scored a game
0.83
conceded a game
Fluminense
last 5 away from home
0W
5D
0L
1.00
points a game
1.20
scored a game
1.20
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Atletico-MG | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 80% 8/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/10 40% |
| 20% 2/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/10 30% |
| 50% 5/10 | Both teams scored | 6/10 60% |
| 30% 3/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 4/10 40% |
| 30% 3/10 | Failed to score | 2/10 20% |
At half time
Atletico-MG
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
30%
Level
40%
Behind
30%
Fluminense
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
10%
Level
60%
Behind
30%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Fluminense |
34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | +13 | 57 |
| 7 |
Atletico-MG |
34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Atletico-MG face Fluminense in Serie A. Atletico-MG have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 7 (1.4 points per game). Fluminense have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 5 (2.2 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With evenly matched metrics (40% vs 30%), tactical discipline from both sides favors a tightly fought stalemate (Match outcome). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 40% win probability for Atletico-MG, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 30% probability for Fluminense. Our top recommended betting pick is Double Chance / 1X2.
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.82 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Saturday, 12 Sep 2026 at 19:00 (East Africa Time) at MRV Arena as part of the Serie A.
