Liga de Expansión MX · Saturday, 12 Sep 2026
Venados FC
Home
5-0
Full time
Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero
Tepatitlán
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.22
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.55 - 0.7
Win probability
Home
77%
Draw
9%
Away
9%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
77%
1.22
Double Chance
Home/Draw
86%
1.09
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
91%
1.03
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
79%
1.19
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
91%
Over 2.5
79%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.25
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Venados FC wins
0
Draws
0
Tepatitlán wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
40%
Recent form
20%
80%
Attack
26%
5%
Defence
5%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
77%
Win probability
9%
Home and away record
Venados FC
last 3 at home
3W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
3.33
scored a game
1.33
conceded a game
Tepatitlán
last 3 away from home
0W
0D
3L
0.00
points a game
0.33
scored a game
3.33
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
7 matches.
| Venados FC | Tepatitlán | |
|---|---|---|
| 100% 7/7 | Over 1.5 goals | 5/7 71% |
| 86% 6/7 | Over 2.5 goals | 5/7 71% |
| 71% 5/7 | Over 3.5 goals | 5/7 71% |
| 86% 6/7 | Both teams scored | 3/7 43% |
| 14% 1/7 | Kept a clean sheet | 0/7 0% |
| 0% 0/7 | Failed to score | 4/7 57% |
At half time
Venados FC
from 7 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
14%
Level
43%
Behind
43%
Tepatitlán
from 7 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
29%
Level
29%
Behind
43%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |
Venados FC |
10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 16 |
Tepatitlán |
9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -23 | 3 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Venados FC face Tepatitlán in Liga de Expansión MX. Venados FC have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 12 and conceding 16 (1.2 points per game). Tepatitlán have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 18 (0.6 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 91% and Both Teams to Score at 79%.
With a 77% probability backing Venados FC, home advantage and superior chance creation make Venados FC to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 77% win probability for Venados FC, a 9% chance of a draw, and a 9% probability for Tepatitlán. Our top recommended betting pick is Venados FC Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.25 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 79% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Saturday, 12 Sep 2026 at 23:00 (East Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero as part of the Liga de Expansión MX.
