Eredivisie · Tuesday, 15 Sep 2026
Ajax
Home
5-1
Full time
Johan Cruijff Arena
Willem II
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.08
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.79 - 0.59
Win probability
Home
87%
Draw
8%
Away
4%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
87%
1.08
Double Chance
Home/Draw
95%
1.01
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
80%
1.18
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
80%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.38
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Ajax wins
0
Draws
0
Willem II wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
80%
Recent form
13%
95%
Attack
33%
40%
Defence
6%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
87%
Win probability
5%
Home and away record
Ajax
last 8 at home
5W
2D
1L
2.13
points a game
2.38
scored a game
1.50
conceded a game
Willem II
last 2 away from home
0W
1D
1L
0.50
points a game
1.00
scored a game
2.50
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Ajax | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|
| 100% 10/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 8/9 89% |
| 90% 9/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 7/9 78% |
| 90% 9/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 4/9 44% |
| 80% 8/10 | Both teams scored | 7/9 78% |
| 20% 2/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/9 11% |
| 0% 0/10 | Failed to score | 1/9 11% |
At half time
Ajax
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
70%
Level
10%
Behind
20%
Willem II
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
11%
Level
33%
Behind
56%
Match Preview & Analysis
Ajax face Willem II in Eredivisie. Ajax have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 19 and conceding 9 (2.4 points per game). Willem II have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 14 (0.4 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 80% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 87% probability backing Ajax, home advantage and superior chance creation make Ajax to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 87% win probability for Ajax, a 8% chance of a draw, and a 4% probability for Willem II. Our top recommended betting pick is Ajax Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.38 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Tuesday, 15 Sep 2026 at 18:00 (East Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena as part of the Eredivisie.
