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EFL Trophy · Tuesday, 15 Sep 2026
York
Home
1-3
Full time
York Community Stadium
Newcastle United U21
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.27
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.48 - 0.74
Win probability
Home
74%
Draw
10%
Away
11%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
74%
1.27
Double Chance
Home/Draw
84%
1.12
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
92%
1.02
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
82%
1.15
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
92%
Over 2.5
82%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.22
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
York wins
0
Draws
0
Newcastle United U21 wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
53%
Recent form
5%
66%
Attack
41%
60%
Defence
5%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
74%
Win probability
11%
Home and away record
York
last 8 at home
4W
1D
3L
1.63
points a game
1.88
scored a game
1.88
conceded a game
Newcastle United U21
last 2 away from home
0W
0D
2L
0.00
points a game
2.00
scored a game
3.50
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| York | Newcastle United U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| 100% 10/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 4/4 100% |
| 70% 7/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/4 100% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/4 75% |
| 80% 8/10 | Both teams scored | 3/4 75% |
| 10% 1/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 0/4 0% |
| 10% 1/10 | Failed to score | 1/4 25% |
At half time
York
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
40%
Behind
40%
Newcastle United U21
from 4 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
0%
Level
50%
Behind
50%
Match Preview & Analysis
York face Newcastle United U21 in EFL Trophy. York have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 6 (1.6 points per game). Newcastle United U21 have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 4 games, scoring 5 and conceding 14 (0 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 92% and Both Teams to Score at 82%.
With a 74% probability backing York, home advantage and superior chance creation make York to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 74% win probability for York, a 10% chance of a draw, and a 11% probability for Newcastle United U21. Our top recommended betting pick is York Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.22 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 82% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Tuesday, 15 Sep 2026 at 18:00 (East Africa Time) at York Community Stadium as part of the EFL Trophy.
