Liga de Expansión MX · Sunday, 20 Sep 2026
Monarcas
Home
2-0
Full time
Estadio Morelos
Leones Negros UDG
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 2.14
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.76 - 1.31
Win probability
Home
44%
Draw
18%
Away
37%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
44%
2.14
Double Chance
Home/Away
81%
1.16
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
87%
1.08
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
83%
1.13
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
87%
Over 2.5
83%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.07
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Monarcas wins
0
Draws
0
Leones Negros UDG wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
80%
Recent form
73%
60%
Attack
80%
66%
Defence
66%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
44%
Win probability
37%
Home and away record
Monarcas
last 5 at home
3W
1D
1L
2.00
points a game
3.20
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Leones Negros UDG
last 4 away from home
4W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
2.75
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
9 matches.
| Monarcas | Leones Negros UDG | |
|---|---|---|
| 67% 6/9 | Over 1.5 goals | 8/8 100% |
| 67% 6/9 | Over 2.5 goals | 6/8 75% |
| 56% 5/9 | Over 3.5 goals | 5/8 63% |
| 67% 6/9 | Both teams scored | 6/8 75% |
| 22% 2/9 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/8 25% |
| 11% 1/9 | Failed to score | 0/8 0% |
At half time
Monarcas
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
33%
Level
33%
Behind
33%
Leones Negros UDG
from 8 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
75%
Level
13%
Behind
13%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Monarcas |
10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 |
Leones Negros UDG |
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Monarcas face Leones Negros UDG in Liga de Expansión MX. Monarcas have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 5 (2.4 points per game). Leones Negros UDG have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 12 and conceding 5 (2.2 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 87% and Both Teams to Score at 83%.
With a 44% probability backing Monarcas, home advantage and superior chance creation make Monarcas to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 44% win probability for Monarcas, a 18% chance of a draw, and a 37% probability for Leones Negros UDG. Our top recommended betting pick is Monarcas Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.07 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 83% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Sunday, 20 Sep 2026 at 01:00 (East Africa Time) at Estadio Morelos as part of the Liga de Expansión MX.
