Serie D - Girone G · Sunday, 20 Sep 2026
Sarnese
Home
3-1
Full time
Venue TBC
Gelbison
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.15
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.67 - 0.61
Win probability
Home
82%
Draw
13%
Away
5%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
82%
1.15
Double Chance
Home/Draw
95%
1.01
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
69%
1.36
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
31%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.28
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Sarnese wins
0
Draws
0
Gelbison wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
58%
Recent form
44%
33%
Attack
33%
75%
Defence
66%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
82%
Win probability
5%
Home and away record
Sarnese
last 1 at home
1W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
2.00
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Gelbison
last 1 away from home
0W
0D
1L
0.00
points a game
1.00
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
4 matches.
| Sarnese | Gelbison | |
|---|---|---|
| 50% 2/4 | Over 1.5 goals | 2/3 67% |
| 25% 1/4 | Over 2.5 goals | 2/3 67% |
| 0% 0/4 | Over 3.5 goals | 0/3 0% |
| 50% 2/4 | Both teams scored | 2/3 67% |
| 25% 1/4 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/3 33% |
| 25% 1/4 | Failed to score | 1/3 33% |
At half time
Sarnese
from 4 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
25%
Level
25%
Behind
50%
Gelbison
from 3 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
0%
Level
67%
Behind
33%
Match Preview & Analysis
Sarnese face Gelbison in Serie D - Girone G. Sarnese have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 games, scoring 4 and conceding 3 (1.75 points per game). Gelbison have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 games, scoring 3 and conceding 3 (1.33 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 31%.
With a 82% probability backing Sarnese, home advantage and superior chance creation make Sarnese to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 82% win probability for Sarnese, a 13% chance of a draw, and a 5% probability for Gelbison. Our top recommended betting pick is Sarnese Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.28 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 31%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 20 Sep 2026 at 14:00 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Serie D - Girone G.
