Ligue 1 · Sunday, 20 Sep 2026
Marseille
Home
1-2
Full time
Orange Vélodrome
Paris Saint Germain
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 1.81
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.35 - 1.64
Win probability
Home
27%
Draw
21%
Away
52%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
52%
1.81
Double Chance
Home/Away
79%
1.19
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68%
1.38
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
67%
1.40
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
68%
Over 2.5
67%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.99
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Marseille wins
0
Draws
0
Paris Saint Germain wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
20%
Recent form
53%
46%
Attack
80%
33%
Defence
53%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
27%
Win probability
52%
Home and away record
Marseille
last 5 at home
3W
0D
2L
1.80
points a game
2.40
scored a game
1.40
conceded a game
Paris Saint Germain
last 5 away from home
1W
2D
2L
1.00
points a game
0.80
scored a game
1.40
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
9 matches.
| Marseille | Paris Saint Germain | |
|---|---|---|
| 88% 7/8 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/9 78% |
| 75% 6/8 | Over 2.5 goals | 6/9 67% |
| 50% 4/8 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/9 33% |
| 63% 5/8 | Both teams scored | 6/9 67% |
| 13% 1/8 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/9 11% |
| 25% 2/8 | Failed to score | 2/9 22% |
At half time
Marseille
from 8 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
13%
Level
63%
Behind
25%
Paris Saint Germain
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
44%
Level
22%
Behind
33%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain |
10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 23 |
| 4 |
Marseille |
10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Marseille face Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1. Marseille have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 10 (0.6 points per game). Paris Saint Germain have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 12 and conceding 7 (1.6 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 68% and Both Teams to Score at 67%.
Paris Saint Germain's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 52% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Paris Saint Germain to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 27% win probability for Marseille, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 52% probability for Paris Saint Germain. Our top recommended betting pick is Paris Saint Germain Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.99 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 67% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Sunday, 20 Sep 2026 at 18:45 (East Africa Time) at Orange Vélodrome as part of the Ligue 1.
