EFL Trophy · Tuesday, 22 Sep 2026
Crewe
Home
4-1
Full time
Alexandra Stadium
Aston Villa U21
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.62
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.09 - 1.01
Win probability
Home
58%
Draw
19%
Away
23%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
58%
1.62
Double Chance
Home/Draw
77%
1.22
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73%
1.29
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
69%
1.36
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
73%
Over 2.5
69%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.1
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Crewe wins
0
Draws
0
Aston Villa U21 wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
33%
Recent form
33%
33%
Attack
66%
66%
Defence
20%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
58%
Win probability
23%
Home and away record
Crewe
last 7 at home
2W
4D
1L
1.43
points a game
1.29
scored a game
1.14
conceded a game
Aston Villa U21
last 3 away from home
1W
1D
1L
1.33
points a game
2.33
scored a game
2.33
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Crewe | Aston Villa U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| 60% 6/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 8/8 100% |
| 30% 3/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 7/8 88% |
| 20% 2/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 5/8 63% |
| 60% 6/10 | Both teams scored | 6/8 75% |
| 40% 4/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 0/8 0% |
| 20% 2/10 | Failed to score | 2/8 25% |
At half time
Crewe
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
10%
Level
60%
Behind
30%
Aston Villa U21
from 8 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
25%
Level
13%
Behind
63%
Match Preview & Analysis
Crewe face Aston Villa U21 in EFL Trophy. Crewe have won 0, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 5 (1 points per game). Aston Villa U21 have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 12 (1 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 73% and Both Teams to Score at 69%.
With a 58% probability backing Crewe, home advantage and superior chance creation make Crewe to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 58% win probability for Crewe, a 19% chance of a draw, and a 23% probability for Aston Villa U21. Our top recommended betting pick is Crewe Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.1 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 69% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Tuesday, 22 Sep 2026 at 18:00 (East Africa Time) at Alexandra Stadium as part of the EFL Trophy.
