USL Championship · Thursday, 01 Oct 2026
Sacramento Republic
Home
3-2
Full time
Heart Health Park
Las Vegas Lights
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.54
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.16 - 0.87
Win probability
Home
61%
Draw
22%
Away
17%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
61%
1.54
Double Chance
Home/Draw
83%
1.13
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.03
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Sacramento Republic wins
0
Draws
0
Las Vegas Lights wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
46%
Recent form
26%
33%
Attack
26%
73%
Defence
53%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
61%
Win probability
17%
Home and away record
Sacramento Republic
last 7 at home
4W
2D
1L
2.00
points a game
1.57
scored a game
0.57
conceded a game
Las Vegas Lights
last 6 away from home
5W
0D
1L
2.50
points a game
1.50
scored a game
0.83
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Sacramento Republic | Las Vegas Lights | |
|---|---|---|
| 50% 5/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 30% 3/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 2/10 20% |
| 30% 3/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 0/10 0% |
| 40% 4/10 | Both teams scored | 4/10 40% |
| 50% 5/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 4/10 40% |
| 30% 3/10 | Failed to score | 3/10 30% |
At half time
Sacramento Republic
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
30%
Level
60%
Behind
10%
Las Vegas Lights
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
30%
Level
40%
Behind
30%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Sacramento Republic |
29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | +13 | 48 |
| 11 |
Las Vegas Lights |
29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | -6 | 36 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Sacramento Republic face Las Vegas Lights in USL Championship. Sacramento Republic have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 4 (1.4 points per game). Las Vegas Lights have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 7 (0.8 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 61% probability backing Sacramento Republic, home advantage and superior chance creation make Sacramento Republic to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 61% win probability for Sacramento Republic, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 17% probability for Las Vegas Lights. Our top recommended betting pick is Sacramento Republic Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.03 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Thursday, 01 Oct 2026 at 02:00 (East Africa Time) at Heart Health Park as part of the USL Championship.
