UEFA Nations League · Friday, 02 Oct 2026
France
Home
1-1
Full time
Stade de France
Italy
Away
Recommended tip
- @ -
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.66 - 1.16
Win probability
Home
40%
Draw
30%
Away
30%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
No tip for this market.
Double Chance
Home/Draw
76%
1.24
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
79%
1.19
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
72%
1.31
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
21%
Over 2.5
28%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.82
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
France wins
0
Draws
0
Italy wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
60%
Recent form
5%
73%
Attack
5%
40%
Defence
33%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
40%
Win probability
30%
Home and away record
France
last 4 at home
2W
0D
2L
1.50
points a game
2.25
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Italy
last 0 away from home
No away from home games on record yet.
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
6 matches.
| France | Italy | |
|---|---|---|
| 83% 5/6 | Over 1.5 goals | 1/1 100% |
| 50% 3/6 | Over 2.5 goals | 0/1 0% |
| 33% 2/6 | Over 3.5 goals | 0/1 0% |
| 33% 2/6 | Both teams scored | 0/1 0% |
| 50% 3/6 | Kept a clean sheet | 0/1 0% |
| 17% 1/6 | Failed to score | 1/1 100% |
At half time
France
from 6 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
33%
Level
33%
Behind
33%
Italy
No half-time scores on record for this side.
Match Preview & Analysis
France face Italy in UEFA Nations League. France have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 and conceding 9 (1.8 points per game). Italy have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 1 games, scoring 0 and conceding 2 (0 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 21% and Both Teams to Score at 28%.
With evenly matched metrics (40% vs 30%), tactical discipline from both sides favors a tightly fought stalemate (Match outcome). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 40% win probability for France, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 30% probability for Italy. Our top recommended betting pick is Double Chance / 1X2.
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.82 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 28%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Friday, 02 Oct 2026 at 18:45 (East Africa Time) at Stade de France as part of the UEFA Nations League.
