Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Saturday, 03 Oct 2026
Marchamalo
Home
2-2
Full time
Venue TBC
Tarancón
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.25
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.5 - 0.61
Win probability
Home
75%
Draw
21%
Away
5%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
75%
1.25
Double Chance
Home/Draw
96%
1.01
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.36
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
82%
1.15
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
31%
Over 2.5
18%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.11
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Marchamalo wins
0
Draws
0
Tarancón wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
86%
Recent form
33%
60%
Attack
22%
86%
Defence
66%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
75%
Win probability
5%
Home and away record
Marchamalo
last 4 at home
3W
1D
0L
2.50
points a game
1.75
scored a game
0.50
conceded a game
Tarancón
last 1 away from home
0W
0D
1L
0.00
points a game
0.00
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
6 matches.
| Marchamalo | Tarancón | |
|---|---|---|
| 67% 4/6 | Over 1.5 goals | 1/3 33% |
| 17% 1/6 | Over 2.5 goals | 1/3 33% |
| 17% 1/6 | Over 3.5 goals | 0/3 0% |
| 17% 1/6 | Both teams scored | 1/3 33% |
| 83% 5/6 | Kept a clean sheet | 0/3 0% |
| 0% 0/6 | Failed to score | 2/3 67% |
At half time
Marchamalo
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
60%
Level
20%
Behind
20%
Tarancón
from 3 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
33%
Level
67%
Behind
0%
Match Preview & Analysis
Marchamalo face Tarancón in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18. Marchamalo have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 2 (2.6 points per game). Tarancón have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 3 games, scoring 2 and conceding 3 (1 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 31% and Both Teams to Score at 18%.
With a 75% probability backing Marchamalo, home advantage and superior chance creation make Marchamalo to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 75% win probability for Marchamalo, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 5% probability for Tarancón. Our top recommended betting pick is Marchamalo Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.11 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 18%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Saturday, 03 Oct 2026 at 16:30 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
