Liga de Expansión MX · Sunday, 04 Oct 2026
Piratas
Home
4-0
Full time
Venue TBC
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.34
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.38 - 0.7
Win probability
Home
70%
Draw
21%
Away
9%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
70%
1.34
Double Chance
Home/Draw
91%
1.03
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
70%
1.34
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.08
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Piratas wins
0
Draws
0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
53%
Recent form
26%
53%
Attack
26%
66%
Defence
33%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
70%
Win probability
9%
Home and away record
Piratas
last 4 at home
3W
0D
1L
2.25
points a game
1.75
scored a game
0.75
conceded a game
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
last 5 away from home
1W
0D
4L
0.60
points a game
0.80
scored a game
2.40
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
9 matches.
| Piratas | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | |
|---|---|---|
| 67% 6/9 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/9 78% |
| 33% 3/9 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/9 44% |
| 11% 1/9 | Over 3.5 goals | 1/9 11% |
| 44% 4/9 | Both teams scored | 3/9 33% |
| 33% 3/9 | Kept a clean sheet | 3/9 33% |
| 33% 3/9 | Failed to score | 3/9 33% |
At half time
Piratas
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
22%
Level
56%
Behind
22%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
11%
Level
56%
Behind
33%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
Piratas |
10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 |
| 14 |
Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Piratas face Alebrijes de Oaxaca in Liga de Expansión MX. Piratas have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 5 (1.6 points per game). Alebrijes de Oaxaca have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 10 (0.8 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 30%.
With a 70% probability backing Piratas, home advantage and superior chance creation make Piratas to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 70% win probability for Piratas, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 9% probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Our top recommended betting pick is Piratas Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.08 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 30%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 04 Oct 2026 at 01:00 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Liga de Expansión MX.
