UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 04 Oct 2026
Azerbaijan
Home
1-0
Full time
Bakcell Arena
Lithuania
Away
Recommended tip
Draw @ 1.84
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.37 - 0.96
Win probability
Home
28%
Draw
51%
Away
21%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
X
51%
1.84
Double Chance
Home/Draw
79%
1.19
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
94%
1.01
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
88%
1.07
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
6%
Over 2.5
12%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.33
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Azerbaijan wins
0
Draws
0
Lithuania wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
66%
Recent form
95%
16%
Attack
83%
95%
Defence
95%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
28%
Win probability
21%
Home and away record
Azerbaijan
last 2 at home
1W
1D
0L
2.00
points a game
0.50
scored a game
0.00
conceded a game
Lithuania
last 1 away from home
1W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
2.00
scored a game
0.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
2 matches.
| Azerbaijan | Lithuania | |
|---|---|---|
| 0% 0/2 | Over 1.5 goals | 2/2 100% |
| 0% 0/2 | Over 2.5 goals | 1/2 50% |
| 0% 0/2 | Over 3.5 goals | 0/2 0% |
| 0% 0/2 | Both teams scored | 0/2 0% |
| 100% 2/2 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/2 100% |
| 50% 1/2 | Failed to score | 0/2 0% |
At half time
Azerbaijan
from 2 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
0%
Level
100%
Behind
0%
Lithuania
from 2 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
50%
Behind
0%
Match Preview & Analysis
Azerbaijan face Lithuania in UEFA Nations League. Azerbaijan have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 2 games, scoring 1 and conceding 0 (2 points per game). Lithuania have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 2 games, scoring 5 and conceding 0 (3 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 6% and Both Teams to Score at 12%.
With evenly matched metrics (28% vs 21%), tactical discipline from both sides favors a tightly fought stalemate (Match Draw (X)). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 28% win probability for Azerbaijan, a 51% chance of a draw, and a 21% probability for Lithuania. Our top recommended betting pick is Draw (X).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.33 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 12%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 04 Oct 2026 at 13:00 (East Africa Time) at Bakcell Arena as part of the UEFA Nations League.
