UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 04 Oct 2026
Azerbaijan
Home
1-0
Full time
Bakcell Arena
Lithuania
Away
Recommended tip
Draw @ 1.84
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.37 - 0.96
Win probability
Home
28%
Draw
51%
Away
21%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
X
51%
1.84
Double Chance
Home/Draw
79%
1.19
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
94%
1.01
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
88%
1.07
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
6%
Over 2.5
12%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.33
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Azerbaijan wins
0
Draws
0
Lithuania wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
33%
Recent form
95%
5%
Attack
95%
95%
Defence
95%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
28%
Win probability
21%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aze Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 2 | Lit Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Azerbaijan face Lithuania in UEFA Nations League. Azerbaijan have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 1 games, scoring 0 and conceding 0 (1 points per game). Lithuania have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 1 games, scoring 3 and conceding 0 (3 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 6% and Both Teams to Score at 12%.
With evenly matched metrics (28% vs 21%), tactical discipline from both sides favors a tightly fought stalemate (Match Draw (X)). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 28% win probability for Azerbaijan, a 51% chance of a draw, and a 21% probability for Lithuania. Our top recommended betting pick is Draw (X).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.33 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 12%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 04 Oct 2026 at 13:00 (East Africa Time) at Bakcell Arena as part of the UEFA Nations League.
