Serie D - Girone E · Sunday, 04 Oct 2026
Ternana
Home
4-1
Full time
Stadio Libero Liberati
Montevarchi Calcio
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.36
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.36 - 0.72
Win probability
Home
69%
Draw
20%
Away
10%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
69%
1.36
Double Chance
Home/Draw
89%
1.06
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
63%
1.49
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
37%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.08
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Ternana wins
0
Draws
0
Montevarchi Calcio wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
33%
Recent form
33%
41%
Attack
40%
66%
Defence
53%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
69%
Win probability
10%
Home and away record
Ternana
last 2 at home
1W
1D
0L
2.00
points a game
2.00
scored a game
0.50
conceded a game
Montevarchi Calcio
last 3 away from home
0W
1D
2L
0.33
points a game
0.67
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
5 matches.
| Ternana | Montevarchi Calcio | |
|---|---|---|
| 75% 3/4 | Over 1.5 goals | 4/5 80% |
| 50% 2/4 | Over 2.5 goals | 3/5 60% |
| 0% 0/4 | Over 3.5 goals | 1/5 20% |
| 50% 2/4 | Both teams scored | 3/5 60% |
| 25% 1/4 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/5 20% |
| 25% 1/4 | Failed to score | 2/5 40% |
At half time
Ternana
from 4 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
25%
Level
75%
Behind
0%
Montevarchi Calcio
from 4 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
75%
Level
25%
Behind
0%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Ternana |
10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +9 | 18 |
| 12 |
Montevarchi Calcio |
10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Ternana face Montevarchi Calcio in Serie D - Girone E. Ternana have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 games, scoring 5 and conceding 4 (1 points per game). Montevarchi Calcio have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 7 (1 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 37%.
With a 69% probability backing Ternana, home advantage and superior chance creation make Ternana to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 69% win probability for Ternana, a 20% chance of a draw, and a 10% probability for Montevarchi Calcio. Our top recommended betting pick is Ternana Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.08 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 37%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 04 Oct 2026 at 13:00 (East Africa Time) at Stadio Libero Liberati as part of the Serie D - Girone E.
