Serie D - Girone F · Sunday, 04 Oct 2026
Atletico Ascoli
Home
0-1
Full time
Venue TBC
Fossombrone
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.13
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.69 - 0.61
Win probability
Home
83%
Draw
11%
Away
5%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
83%
1.13
Double Chance
Home/Draw
94%
1.01
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70%
1.34
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
70%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.3
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Atletico Ascoli wins
0
Draws
0
Fossombrone wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
53%
Recent form
40%
26%
Attack
33%
73%
Defence
20%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
83%
Win probability
5%
Home and away record
Atletico Ascoli
last 2 at home
2W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
1.50
scored a game
0.50
conceded a game
Fossombrone
last 3 away from home
2W
0D
1L
2.00
points a game
1.00
scored a game
1.33
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
5 matches.
| Atletico Ascoli | Fossombrone | |
|---|---|---|
| 60% 3/5 | Over 1.5 goals | 4/5 80% |
| 20% 1/5 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 80% |
| 0% 0/5 | Over 3.5 goals | 2/5 40% |
| 40% 2/5 | Both teams scored | 2/5 40% |
| 40% 2/5 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/5 20% |
| 40% 2/5 | Failed to score | 2/5 40% |
At half time
Atletico Ascoli
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
40%
Behind
20%
Fossombrone
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
0%
Level
40%
Behind
60%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |
Atletico Ascoli |
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 |
Fossombrone |
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Atletico Ascoli face Fossombrone in Serie D - Girone F. Atletico Ascoli have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 4 (1.6 points per game). Fossombrone have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 12 (1.2 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 70% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 83% probability backing Atletico Ascoli, home advantage and superior chance creation make Atletico Ascoli to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 83% win probability for Atletico Ascoli, a 11% chance of a draw, and a 5% probability for Fossombrone. Our top recommended betting pick is Atletico Ascoli Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.3 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 04 Oct 2026 at 13:00 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Serie D - Girone F.
