FA WSL · Sunday, 04 Oct 2026
Manchester City W
Home
4-2
Full time
Manchester Regional Arena
Arsenal W
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.74
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
2 - 0.98
Win probability
Home
54%
Draw
24%
Away
22%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
54%
1.74
Double Chance
Home/Draw
78%
1.21
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.98
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Manchester City W wins
0
Draws
0
Arsenal W wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
73%
Recent form
60%
93%
Attack
33%
53%
Defence
80%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
54%
Win probability
22%
Home and away record
Manchester City W
last 3 at home
2W
1D
0L
2.33
points a game
2.67
scored a game
1.33
conceded a game
Arsenal W
last 2 away from home
1W
1D
0L
2.00
points a game
1.50
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
5 matches.
| Manchester City W | Arsenal W | |
|---|---|---|
| 100% 5/5 | Over 1.5 goals | 2/5 40% |
| 80% 4/5 | Over 2.5 goals | 1/5 20% |
| 80% 4/5 | Over 3.5 goals | 1/5 20% |
| 100% 5/5 | Both teams scored | 2/5 40% |
| 0% 0/5 | Kept a clean sheet | 3/5 60% |
| 0% 0/5 | Failed to score | 1/5 20% |
At half time
Manchester City W
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
40%
Behind
40%
Arsenal W
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
60%
Behind
0%
Match Preview & Analysis
Manchester City W face Arsenal W in FA WSL. Manchester City W have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 14 and conceding 7 (2.2 points per game). Arsenal W have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 3 (1.8 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 54% probability backing Manchester City W, home advantage and superior chance creation make Manchester City W to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 54% win probability for Manchester City W, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 22% probability for Arsenal W. Our top recommended betting pick is Manchester City W Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.98 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 04 Oct 2026 at 15:30 (East Africa Time) at Manchester Regional Arena as part of the FA WSL.
