Limited match data: this preview is still updating and is not promoted in search until enough form, standings and prediction evidence is available.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Sunday, 04 Oct 2026
Derio
Home
2-0
Full time
Venue TBC
Beasain
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 2.00
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.83 - 0.9
Win probability
Home
47%
Draw
36%
Away
18%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
47%
2.00
Double Chance
Home/Draw
83%
1.13
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
83%
1.13
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
77%
1.22
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
17%
Over 2.5
23%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.73
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Derio wins
0
Draws
0
Beasain wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
40%
Recent form
33%
46%
Attack
40%
53%
Defence
53%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
47%
Win probability
18%
Home and away record
Derio
last 5 at home
1W
1D
3L
0.80
points a game
1.00
scored a game
1.80
conceded a game
Beasain
last 3 away from home
0W
2D
1L
0.67
points a game
0.67
scored a game
1.33
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
7 matches.
| Derio | Beasain | |
|---|---|---|
| 71% 5/7 | Over 1.5 goals | 5/6 83% |
| 29% 2/7 | Over 2.5 goals | 3/6 50% |
| 14% 1/7 | Over 3.5 goals | 2/6 33% |
| 43% 3/7 | Both teams scored | 3/6 50% |
| 29% 2/7 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/6 33% |
| 43% 3/7 | Failed to score | 2/6 33% |
At half time
Derio
from 7 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
14%
Level
57%
Behind
29%
Beasain
from 6 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
33%
Level
33%
Behind
33%
Match Preview & Analysis
Derio face Beasain in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4. Derio have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 7 (1.2 points per game). Beasain have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 7 (1 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 17% and Both Teams to Score at 23%.
With a 47% probability backing Derio, home advantage and superior chance creation make Derio to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 47% win probability for Derio, a 36% chance of a draw, and a 18% probability for Beasain. Our top recommended betting pick is Derio Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.73 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 23%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 04 Oct 2026 at 16:30 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
