Liga de Expansión MX · Sunday, 04 Oct 2026
Leones Negros UDG
Home
6-3
Full time
Estadio Jalisco
Dorados
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.54
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.16 - 0.94
Win probability
Home
61%
Draw
19%
Away
20%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
61%
1.54
Double Chance
Home/Draw
80%
1.18
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72%
1.31
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
67%
1.40
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
72%
Over 2.5
67%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.1
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Leones Negros UDG wins
0
Draws
0
Dorados wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
53%
Recent form
53%
53%
Attack
60%
53%
Defence
66%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
61%
Win probability
20%
Home and away record
Leones Negros UDG
last 4 at home
1W
2D
1L
1.25
points a game
2.00
scored a game
1.50
conceded a game
Dorados
last 4 away from home
2W
1D
1L
1.75
points a game
2.25
scored a game
1.50
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
9 matches.
| Leones Negros UDG | Dorados | |
|---|---|---|
| 100% 9/9 | Over 1.5 goals | 8/9 89% |
| 67% 6/9 | Over 2.5 goals | 5/9 56% |
| 56% 5/9 | Over 3.5 goals | 5/9 56% |
| 67% 6/9 | Both teams scored | 7/9 78% |
| 22% 2/9 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/9 11% |
| 11% 1/9 | Failed to score | 1/9 11% |
At half time
Leones Negros UDG
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
67%
Level
11%
Behind
22%
Dorados
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
33%
Level
33%
Behind
33%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Leones Negros UDG |
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 11 |
Dorados |
10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Leones Negros UDG face Dorados in Liga de Expansión MX. Leones Negros UDG have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 7 (1.6 points per game). Dorados have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 5 (1.6 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 72% and Both Teams to Score at 67%.
With a 61% probability backing Leones Negros UDG, home advantage and superior chance creation make Leones Negros UDG to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 61% win probability for Leones Negros UDG, a 19% chance of a draw, and a 20% probability for Dorados. Our top recommended betting pick is Leones Negros UDG Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.1 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 67% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Sunday, 04 Oct 2026 at 18:00 (East Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco as part of the Liga de Expansión MX.
