USL Championship · Sunday, 04 Oct 2026
New Mexico United
Home
2-1
Full time
Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park
Phoenix Rising
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.68
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.04 - 0.98
Win probability
Home
56%
Draw
22%
Away
22%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
56%
1.68
Double Chance
Home/Draw
78%
1.21
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.02
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
New Mexico United wins
0
Draws
0
Phoenix Rising wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
40%
Recent form
53%
53%
Attack
53%
46%
Defence
46%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
56%
Win probability
22%
Home and away record
New Mexico United
last 7 at home
4W
2D
1L
2.00
points a game
1.71
scored a game
1.29
conceded a game
Phoenix Rising
last 6 away from home
0W
3D
3L
0.50
points a game
1.00
scored a game
1.67
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | |
|---|---|---|
| 60% 6/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 8/10 80% |
| 60% 6/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 6/10 60% |
| 30% 3/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 4/10 40% |
| 60% 6/10 | Both teams scored | 8/10 80% |
| 30% 3/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/10 10% |
| 30% 3/10 | Failed to score | 2/10 20% |
At half time
New Mexico United
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
60%
Behind
20%
Phoenix Rising
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
70%
Behind
10%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
New Mexico United |
29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | +10 | 49 |
| 8 |
Phoenix Rising |
29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 39 |
Match Preview & Analysis
New Mexico United face Phoenix Rising in USL Championship. New Mexico United have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 8 (1.2 points per game). Phoenix Rising have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 8 (1.6 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 56% probability backing New Mexico United, home advantage and superior chance creation make New Mexico United to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 56% win probability for New Mexico United, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 22% probability for Phoenix Rising. Our top recommended betting pick is New Mexico United Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.02 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 04 Oct 2026 at 22:00 (East Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park as part of the USL Championship.
