UEFA Nations League · Monday, 05 Oct 2026
France
Home
4-1
Full time
Stade de France
Belgium
Away
Recommended tip
Draw @ 1.57
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.28 - 0.87
Win probability
Home
24%
Draw
60%
Away
17%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
X
60%
1.57
Double Chance
Home/Draw
84%
1.12
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
98%
1.01
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
93%
1.01
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
2%
Over 2.5
7%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.15
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
France wins
0
Draws
0
Belgium wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
46%
Recent form
80%
53%
Attack
95%
40%
Defence
73%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
24%
Win probability
17%
Home and away record
France
last 5 at home
2W
1D
2L
1.40
points a game
2.00
scored a game
1.80
conceded a game
Belgium
last 4 away from home
3W
0D
1L
2.25
points a game
3.00
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
7 matches.
| France | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| 86% 6/7 | Over 1.5 goals | 5/6 83% |
| 43% 3/7 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/6 67% |
| 29% 2/7 | Over 3.5 goals | 2/6 33% |
| 43% 3/7 | Both teams scored | 3/6 50% |
| 43% 3/7 | Kept a clean sheet | 3/6 50% |
| 14% 1/7 | Failed to score | 1/6 17% |
At half time
France
from 7 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
29%
Level
43%
Behind
29%
Belgium
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
60%
Level
40%
Behind
0%
Match Preview & Analysis
France face Belgium in UEFA Nations League. France have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 9 (1.4 points per game). Belgium have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 15 and conceding 4 (2.4 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 2% and Both Teams to Score at 7%.
With evenly matched metrics (24% vs 17%), tactical discipline from both sides favors a tightly fought stalemate (Match Draw (X)). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 24% win probability for France, a 60% chance of a draw, and a 17% probability for Belgium. Our top recommended betting pick is Draw (X).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.15 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 7%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Monday, 05 Oct 2026 at 18:45 (East Africa Time) at Stade de France as part of the UEFA Nations League.
