Serie A · Friday, 09 Oct 2026
Palmeiras
Home
1-0
Full time
Nubank Parque
Bahia
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.59
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.31 - 0.81
Win probability
Home
67%
Draw
19%
Away
14%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
59%
1.59
Double Chance
No tip for this market.
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
69%
1.36
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
3.12
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Palmeiras wins
0
Draws
0
Bahia wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
53%
Recent form
80%
33%
Attack
73%
80%
Defence
53%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
67%
Win probability
14%
Home and away record
Palmeiras
last 8 at home
5W
2D
1L
2.13
points a game
1.88
scored a game
0.50
conceded a game
Bahia
last 7 away from home
2W
3D
2L
1.29
points a game
1.43
scored a game
1.43
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Palmeiras | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| 50% 5/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 8/10 80% |
| 30% 3/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 5/10 50% |
| 20% 2/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/10 30% |
| 30% 3/10 | Both teams scored | 7/10 70% |
| 70% 7/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 3/10 30% |
| 30% 3/10 | Failed to score | 2/10 20% |
At half time
Palmeiras
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
60%
Behind
0%
Bahia
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
30%
Level
60%
Behind
10%
Match Preview & Analysis
Palmeiras face Bahia in Serie A. Palmeiras have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 3 (1.6 points per game). Bahia have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 and conceding 7 (2.4 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 67% probability backing Palmeiras, home advantage and superior chance creation make Palmeiras to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 67% win probability for Palmeiras, a 19% chance of a draw, and a 14% probability for Bahia. Our top recommended betting pick is Palmeiras Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.12 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Friday, 09 Oct 2026 at 00:30 (East Africa Time) at Nubank Parque as part of the Serie A.
