Ligi kuu Bara · Friday, 09 Oct 2026
Mbeya City
Home
1-3
Full time
Sokoine Stadium
Kagera Sugar
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.59
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.31 - 0.81
Win probability
Home
67%
Draw
19%
Away
14%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
59%
1.59
Double Chance
No tip for this market.
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
70%
1.34
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
3.12
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Mbeya City wins
0
Draws
0
Kagera Sugar wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
66%
Recent form
13%
40%
Attack
33%
80%
Defence
20%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
67%
Win probability
14%
Home and away record
Mbeya City
last 4 at home
2W
1D
1L
1.75
points a game
1.00
scored a game
0.50
conceded a game
Kagera Sugar
last 2 away from home
0W
0D
2L
0.00
points a game
1.50
scored a game
4.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Mbeya City | Kagera Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| 60% 6/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 6/6 100% |
| 10% 1/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 2/6 33% |
| 0% 0/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 1/6 17% |
| 20% 2/10 | Both teams scored | 4/6 67% |
| 60% 6/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 0/6 0% |
| 50% 5/10 | Failed to score | 2/6 33% |
At half time
Mbeya City
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
60%
Behind
20%
Kagera Sugar
from 6 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
33%
Level
17%
Behind
50%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |
Mbeya City |
9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |
Kagera Sugar |
10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Mbeya City face Kagera Sugar in Ligi kuu Bara. Mbeya City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 3 (2 points per game). Kagera Sugar have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 12 (0.4 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 67% probability backing Mbeya City, home advantage and superior chance creation make Mbeya City to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 67% win probability for Mbeya City, a 19% chance of a draw, and a 14% probability for Kagera Sugar. Our top recommended betting pick is Mbeya City Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.12 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Friday, 09 Oct 2026 at 13:15 (East Africa Time) at Sokoine Stadium as part of the Ligi kuu Bara.
