FAW Championship · Friday, 09 Oct 2026
Caerphilly Athletic
Home
3-2
Full time
Venue TBC
Newport City
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 1.74
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.08 - 1.78
Win probability
Home
16%
Draw
27%
Away
58%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
54%
1.74
Double Chance
Draw/Away
83%
1.13
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
59%
1.59
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
39%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.86
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Caerphilly Athletic wins
0
Draws
0
Newport City wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
46%
Recent form
26%
53%
Attack
40%
40%
Defence
66%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
16%
Win probability
58%
Home and away record
Caerphilly Athletic
last 3 at home
1W
1D
1L
1.33
points a game
1.33
scored a game
1.33
conceded a game
Newport City
last 3 away from home
2W
1D
0L
2.33
points a game
3.00
scored a game
0.67
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
8 matches.
| Caerphilly Athletic | Newport City | |
|---|---|---|
| 75% 6/8 | Over 1.5 goals | 5/7 71% |
| 75% 6/8 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/7 57% |
| 38% 3/8 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/7 43% |
| 50% 4/8 | Both teams scored | 3/7 43% |
| 25% 2/8 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/7 14% |
| 38% 3/8 | Failed to score | 3/7 43% |
At half time
Caerphilly Athletic
from 8 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
13%
Level
38%
Behind
50%
Newport City
from 7 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
29%
Level
29%
Behind
43%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |
Caerphilly Athletic |
12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 13 |
Newport City |
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Caerphilly Athletic face Newport City in FAW Championship. Caerphilly Athletic have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 9 (1.4 points per game). Newport City have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 5 (0.8 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 39% and Both Teams to Score at 41%.
Newport City's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 58% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Newport City to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 16% win probability for Caerphilly Athletic, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 58% probability for Newport City. Our top recommended betting pick is Newport City Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.86 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 41%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Friday, 09 Oct 2026 at 18:45 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the FAW Championship.
