Non League Premier - Northern · Saturday, 10 Oct 2026
Alfreton Town
Home
2-3
Full time
Venue TBC
Bury
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 1.92
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.35 - 1.56
Win probability
Home
27%
Draw
26%
Away
48%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
49%
1.92
Double Chance
Draw/Away
74%
1.27
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
65%
1.45
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
2.91
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Alfreton Town wins
0
Draws
0
Bury wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
40%
Recent form
80%
20%
Attack
95%
60%
Defence
80%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
27%
Win probability
48%
Home and away record
Alfreton Town
last 8 at home
5W
0D
3L
1.88
points a game
1.50
scored a game
1.13
conceded a game
Bury
last 7 away from home
2W
1D
4L
1.00
points a game
0.86
scored a game
1.14
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Alfreton Town | Bury | |
|---|---|---|
| 70% 7/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 30% 3/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 5/10 50% |
| 40% 4/10 | Both teams scored | 4/10 40% |
| 30% 3/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 4/10 40% |
| 30% 3/10 | Failed to score | 2/10 20% |
At half time
Alfreton Town
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
30%
Behind
30%
Bury
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
40%
Behind
10%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 |
Bury |
15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +13 | 26 |
| 11 |
Alfreton Town |
17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | +1 | 23 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Alfreton Town face Bury in Non League Premier - Northern. Alfreton Town have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 3 and conceding 6 (1.2 points per game). Bury have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 19 and conceding 3 (2.4 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
Bury's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 48% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Bury to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 27% win probability for Alfreton Town, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 48% probability for Bury. Our top recommended betting pick is Bury Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.91 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Saturday, 10 Oct 2026 at 14:00 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Non League Premier - Northern.
