Serie A · Sunday, 11 Oct 2026
Sao Paulo
Home
2-1
Full time
Morumbi
Vitoria
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.84
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.95 - 0.98
Win probability
Home
52%
Draw
26%
Away
22%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
51%
1.84
Double Chance
Home/Draw
77%
1.22
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.93
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Sao Paulo wins
0
Draws
0
Vitoria wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
26%
Recent form
46%
20%
Attack
53%
53%
Defence
53%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
52%
Win probability
22%
Home and away record
Sao Paulo
last 8 at home
4W
2D
2L
1.75
points a game
1.50
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Vitoria
last 7 away from home
0W
2D
5L
0.29
points a game
0.43
scored a game
1.57
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Sao Paulo | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|
| 70% 7/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 30% 3/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/10 40% |
| 10% 1/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/10 30% |
| 40% 4/10 | Both teams scored | 3/10 30% |
| 20% 2/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 3/10 30% |
| 40% 4/10 | Failed to score | 4/10 40% |
At half time
Sao Paulo
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
30%
Level
40%
Behind
30%
Vitoria
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
40%
Behind
20%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 |
Sao Paulo |
34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 |
| 15 |
Vitoria |
34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -16 | 38 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Sao Paulo face Vitoria in Serie A. Sao Paulo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 3 and conceding 7 (0.8 points per game). Vitoria have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 7 (1.4 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 52% probability backing Sao Paulo, home advantage and superior chance creation make Sao Paulo to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 52% win probability for Sao Paulo, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 22% probability for Vitoria. Our top recommended betting pick is Sao Paulo Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.93 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 11 Oct 2026 at 00:00 (East Africa Time) at Morumbi as part of the Serie A.
