Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Sunday, 11 Oct 2026
Burgos Promesas
Home
1-1
Full time
Venue TBC
UD Santa Marta
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.49
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.45 - 0.7
Win probability
Home
73%
Draw
18%
Away
9%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
63%
1.49
Double Chance
No tip for this market.
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
67%
1.40
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
3.15
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Burgos Promesas wins
0
Draws
0
UD Santa Marta wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
95%
Recent form
80%
75%
Attack
60%
91%
Defence
80%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
73%
Win probability
9%
Home and away record
Burgos Promesas
last 2 at home
2W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
2.00
scored a game
0.00
conceded a game
UD Santa Marta
last 2 away from home
1W
1D
0L
2.00
points a game
1.50
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
8 matches.
| Burgos Promesas | UD Santa Marta | |
|---|---|---|
| 75% 3/4 | Over 1.5 goals | 6/8 75% |
| 75% 3/4 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/8 50% |
| 0% 0/4 | Over 3.5 goals | 0/8 0% |
| 25% 1/4 | Both teams scored | 4/8 50% |
| 75% 3/4 | Kept a clean sheet | 4/8 50% |
| 0% 0/4 | Failed to score | 0/8 0% |
At half time
Burgos Promesas
from 4 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
75%
Level
25%
Behind
0%
UD Santa Marta
from 8 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
25%
Behind
25%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Burgos Promesas |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 5 |
UD Santa Marta |
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Burgos Promesas face UD Santa Marta in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8. Burgos Promesas have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 games, scoring 9 and conceding 1 (3 points per game). UD Santa Marta have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 3 (2.4 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 73% probability backing Burgos Promesas, home advantage and superior chance creation make Burgos Promesas to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 73% win probability for Burgos Promesas, a 18% chance of a draw, and a 9% probability for UD Santa Marta. Our top recommended betting pick is Burgos Promesas Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.15 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 11 Oct 2026 at 10:00 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
