Serie D - Girone D · Sunday, 11 Oct 2026
Pavia
Home
2-2
Full time
Venue TBC
Varesina
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.62
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.24 - 0.74
Win probability
Home
64%
Draw
24%
Away
11%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
58%
1.62
Double Chance
No tip for this market.
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
61%
1.54
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
39%
Over 2.5
39%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.98
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Pavia wins
0
Draws
0
Varesina wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
20%
Recent form
33%
13%
Attack
33%
66%
Defence
60%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
64%
Win probability
11%
Home and away record
Pavia
last 3 at home
0W
2D
1L
0.67
points a game
0.33
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Varesina
last 2 away from home
0W
1D
1L
0.50
points a game
1.00
scored a game
1.50
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
6 matches.
| Pavia | Varesina | |
|---|---|---|
| 50% 3/6 | Over 1.5 goals | 3/5 60% |
| 50% 3/6 | Over 2.5 goals | 2/5 40% |
| 33% 2/6 | Over 3.5 goals | 1/5 20% |
| 50% 3/6 | Both teams scored | 3/5 60% |
| 50% 3/6 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/5 20% |
| 50% 3/6 | Failed to score | 2/5 40% |
At half time
Pavia
from 6 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
0%
Level
67%
Behind
33%
Varesina
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
60%
Behind
20%
Match Preview & Analysis
Pavia face Varesina in Serie D - Girone D. Pavia have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 2 and conceding 5 (0.6 points per game). Varesina have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 6 (1 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 39% and Both Teams to Score at 39%.
With a 64% probability backing Pavia, home advantage and superior chance creation make Pavia to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 64% win probability for Pavia, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 11% probability for Varesina. Our top recommended betting pick is Pavia Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.98 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 39%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 11 Oct 2026 at 13:00 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Serie D - Girone D.
