Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Sunday, 11 Oct 2026
Motril
Home
1-1
Full time
Venue TBC
Atlético Porcuna
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.29
Predicted score
3 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.91 - 0.52
Win probability
Home
92%
Draw
5%
Away
1%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
73%
1.29
Double Chance
No tip for this market.
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67%
1.40
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
61%
1.54
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
74%
1.27
Goals & trends
67%
Over 2.5
39%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
3.43
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Motril wins
0
Draws
0
Atlético Porcuna wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
53%
Recent form
50%
40%
Attack
50%
60%
Defence
16%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
92%
Win probability
5%
Home and away record
Motril
last 2 at home
0W
1D
1L
0.50
points a game
0.50
scored a game
1.50
conceded a game
Atlético Porcuna
last 1 away from home
0W
0D
1L
0.00
points a game
1.00
scored a game
6.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
5 matches.
| Motril | Atlético Porcuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 80% 4/5 | Over 1.5 goals | 3/4 75% |
| 40% 2/5 | Over 2.5 goals | 3/4 75% |
| 20% 1/5 | Over 3.5 goals | 2/4 50% |
| 60% 3/5 | Both teams scored | 3/4 75% |
| 20% 1/5 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/4 25% |
| 40% 2/5 | Failed to score | 0/4 0% |
At half time
Motril
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
40%
Behind
40%
Atlético Porcuna
from 4 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
0%
Behind
50%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |
Motril |
9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +4 | 16 |
| 11 |
Atlético Porcuna |
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Motril face Atlético Porcuna in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9. Motril have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 6 (1.6 points per game). Atlético Porcuna have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 games, scoring 6 and conceding 10 (1.5 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 67% and Both Teams to Score at 39%.
With a 92% probability backing Motril, home advantage and superior chance creation make Motril to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 3-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 92% win probability for Motril, a 5% chance of a draw, and a 1% probability for Atlético Porcuna. Our top recommended betting pick is Motril Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 3 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.43 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 39%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 11 Oct 2026 at 16:00 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
