Primera Nacional · Sunday, 11 Oct 2026
Almirante Brown
Home
1-1
Full time
Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento
San Miguel
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.84
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.95 - 0.83
Win probability
Home
52%
Draw
33%
Away
15%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
51%
1.84
Double Chance
Home/Draw
83%
1.13
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.38
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
65%
1.45
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
32%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.78
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Almirante Brown wins
0
Draws
0
San Miguel wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
33%
Recent form
66%
20%
Attack
53%
73%
Defence
73%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
52%
Win probability
15%
Home and away record
Almirante Brown
last 7 at home
5W
2D
0L
2.43
points a game
1.29
scored a game
0.14
conceded a game
San Miguel
last 8 away from home
1W
3D
4L
0.75
points a game
0.75
scored a game
1.25
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Almirante Brown | San Miguel | |
|---|---|---|
| 50% 5/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 10/10 100% |
| 20% 2/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/10 40% |
| 20% 2/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 1/10 10% |
| 20% 2/10 | Both teams scored | 6/10 60% |
| 70% 7/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/10 20% |
| 40% 4/10 | Failed to score | 2/10 20% |
At half time
Almirante Brown
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
30%
Level
40%
Behind
30%
San Miguel
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
10%
Level
70%
Behind
20%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
Almirante Brown |
35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | +5 | 51 |
| 18 |
San Miguel |
35 | 6 | 15 | 14 | -14 | 33 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Almirante Brown face San Miguel in Primera Nacional. Almirante Brown have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 3 and conceding 4 (1 points per game). San Miguel have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 4 (2 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 32% and Both Teams to Score at 35%.
With a 52% probability backing Almirante Brown, home advantage and superior chance creation make Almirante Brown to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 52% win probability for Almirante Brown, a 33% chance of a draw, and a 15% probability for San Miguel. Our top recommended betting pick is Almirante Brown Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.78 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 35%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 11 Oct 2026 at 18:30 (East Africa Time) at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento as part of the Primera Nacional.
