Serie A · Sunday, 11 Oct 2026
Atletico-MG
Home
2-1
Full time
Arena MRV
Santos
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 2.00
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.76 - 1.14
Win probability
Home
44%
Draw
27%
Away
29%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
47%
2.00
Double Chance
Home/Draw
71%
1.32
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
64%
1.47
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
2.9
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
1
Atletico-MG wins
0
Draws
1
Santos wins
17 Sep 2026
Atletico-MG
4 - 2
Santos
10 Sep 2026
Santos
2 - 0
Atletico-MG
Why this prediction
73%
Recent form
66%
73%
Attack
73%
60%
Defence
46%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
44%
Win probability
29%
Home and away record
Atletico-MG
last 8 at home
6W
2D
0L
2.50
points a game
2.25
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Santos
last 8 away from home
5W
0D
3L
1.88
points a game
1.75
scored a game
1.63
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Atletico-MG | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| 90% 9/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 10/10 100% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 8/10 80% |
| 30% 3/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 4/10 40% |
| 70% 7/10 | Both teams scored | 7/10 70% |
| 10% 1/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/10 20% |
| 20% 2/10 | Failed to score | 1/10 10% |
At half time
Atletico-MG
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
30%
Level
40%
Behind
30%
Santos
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
30%
Behind
20%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |
Atletico-MG |
34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 |
| 9 |
Santos |
34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | +1 | 47 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Atletico-MG face Santos in Serie A. Atletico-MG have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 and conceding 6 (2.2 points per game). Santos have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 and conceding 8 (2 points per game).
In their last 2 meetings on record, Atletico-MG won 1, Santos won 1 and 0 ended level. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 44% probability backing Atletico-MG, home advantage and superior chance creation make Atletico-MG to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 44% win probability for Atletico-MG, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 29% probability for Santos. Our top recommended betting pick is Atletico-MG Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.9 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 11 Oct 2026 at 19:00 (East Africa Time) at Arena MRV as part of the Serie A.
