AfriPredictions
Serie A · Sunday, 11 Oct 2026
Atletico-MG
Home
19:00
d ::
MRV Arena
Santos
Away
Our Prediction ☆☆☆☆ confidence
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 2.00
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.76 - 1.14
Win probability
Home
44%
Draw
27%
Away
29%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
47% 2.00
Double Chance
Home/Draw
71% 1.32
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
64% 1.47
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
2.9
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
L L W D W
2-1-2
W-D-L
5:6
Goals
1.4
PPG
San Santos
W L W W W
4-0-1
W-D-L
8:5
Goals
2.4
PPG
Head-to-head
0
Atletico-MG wins
0
Draws
1
Santos wins
10 Sep 2026 Santos 2 - 0 Atletico-MG
Why this prediction
46% Recent form 80%
33% Attack 53%
60% Defence 66%
5% Head-to-head 95%
44% Win probability 29%
Team news
Atletico-MG
  • M. Cassierra · Injury
  • Vitor Hugo · Injury
  • Ruan Tressoldi · Muscle Injury
  • Gustavo Scarpa · Inactive
  • Everson · Foot Injury
  • Reinier · Injury
  • A. Preciado · International duty
  • A. Minda · International duty
Santos
  • Neymar · Thigh Injury
  • Vinicius Lira · Knee Injury
  • Gabriel Brazao · Shoulder Injury
  • Arthur Melo · Injury
  • Luan Peres · Yellow Cards
  • Gabriel Bontempo · Yellow Cards
  • Willian Arao · Inactive
  • A. Barreal · Thigh Injury

Absences as last reported. Line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.

League standings
#TeamPWDLGDPts
7 Atl Atletico-MG 28 12 7 9 +5 43
8 San Santos 28 11 8 9 +2 41
Match Preview & Analysis

Atletico-MG face Santos in Serie A. Atletico-MG have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 6 (1.4 points per game). Santos have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 5 (2.4 points per game).

In their last 1 meeting on record, Atletico-MG won 0, Santos won 1 and 0 ended level. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.

With a 44% probability backing Atletico-MG, home advantage and superior chance creation make Atletico-MG to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.

Frequently Asked Questions Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 44% win probability for Atletico-MG, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 29% probability for Santos. Our top recommended betting pick is Atletico-MG Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.9 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 11 Oct 2026 at 19:00 (East Africa Time) at MRV Arena as part of the Serie A.
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