Primeira Liga · Sunday, 11 Oct 2026
Arouca
Home
1-0
Full time
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Estrela
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.71
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.12 - 0.96
Win probability
Home
59%
Draw
19%
Away
21%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
55%
1.71
Double Chance
No tip for this market.
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63%
1.49
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
60%
1.57
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
73%
1.29
Goals & trends
63%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
3.08
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Arouca wins
0
Draws
0
Estrela wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
33%
Recent form
53%
46%
Attack
66%
60%
Defence
33%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
59%
Win probability
21%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aro Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 | Est Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Arouca face Estrela in Primeira Liga. Arouca have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 6 (1 points per game). Estrela have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 10 (1.6 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 63% and Both Teams to Score at 60%.
With a 59% probability backing Arouca, home advantage and superior chance creation make Arouca to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 59% win probability for Arouca, a 19% chance of a draw, and a 21% probability for Estrela. Our top recommended betting pick is Arouca Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.08 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 60% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Sunday, 11 Oct 2026 at 19:30 (East Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca as part of the Primeira Liga.
