AFC Champions League Elite · Monday, 12 Oct 2026
Al-Gharafa
Home
1-2
Full time
Thani bin Jassim Stadium
Esteghlal FC
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 1.84
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.2 - 1.62
Win probability
Home
21%
Draw
28%
Away
51%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
51%
1.84
Double Chance
Draw/Away
78%
1.21
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
39%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.82
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Al-Gharafa wins
0
Draws
0
Esteghlal FC wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
26%
Recent form
60%
53%
Attack
40%
26%
Defence
86%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
21%
Win probability
51%
Home and away record
Al-Gharafa
last 4 at home
2W
1D
1L
1.75
points a game
1.75
scored a game
1.50
conceded a game
Esteghlal FC
last 4 away from home
1W
3D
0L
1.50
points a game
0.50
scored a game
0.25
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
9 matches.
| Al-Gharafa | Esteghlal FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 88% 7/8 | Over 1.5 goals | 5/9 56% |
| 88% 7/8 | Over 2.5 goals | 2/9 22% |
| 50% 4/8 | Over 3.5 goals | 1/9 11% |
| 88% 7/8 | Both teams scored | 2/9 22% |
| 13% 1/8 | Kept a clean sheet | 7/9 78% |
| 13% 1/8 | Failed to score | 2/9 22% |
At half time
Al-Gharafa
from 8 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
13%
Level
63%
Behind
25%
Esteghlal FC
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
44%
Level
56%
Behind
0%
Match Preview & Analysis
Al-Gharafa face Esteghlal FC in AFC Champions League Elite. Al-Gharafa have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 11 (0.8 points per game). Esteghlal FC have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 2 (1.8 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 39% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
Esteghlal FC's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 51% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Esteghlal FC to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 21% win probability for Al-Gharafa, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 51% probability for Esteghlal FC. Our top recommended betting pick is Esteghlal FC Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.82 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Monday, 12 Oct 2026 at 18:15 (East Africa Time) at Thani bin Jassim Stadium as part of the AFC Champions League Elite.
